Trump took the US economy to the brink of a crisis in just 100 days
Donald Trump spent his first 100 days back in the Oval Office driving an economy that the world envied to the brink of crisis, risking America’s reputation as a financial safe haven and fostering fear among voters who’ve lost confidence in his leadership.
Americans were desperate for relief from high grocery prices and bought into the Trump’s promise to make America affordable again in November 2024, partly out of nostalgia for the pre-pandemic economy of his first term.
But the president deliberately and singlehandedly adopted policies that are almost certain to spike prices even more; that could lead to shortages; and that have CEOs and small businesses dealing with chaos and the possibility of a recession.
Trump is attempting the most fundamental overhaul of the US and global economies in generations, adamant that he can recreate a mythical late 19th-century golden age using “beautiful” tariffs to exert US economic might to crush trade rivals.
But a president who has played golf while workers’ 401(k)s tanked has often looked indifferent to the growing concerns of Americans, from business titans to ordinary shoppers who are seeing the impact of his policies in real time over his first 100 days in office, which he will mark on Tuesday.
Trillions of dollars have been wiped off stock markets. Airlines are cutting flights; top firms are trashing their own annual forecasts; some retailers have given up selling China-made goods in the US because of the tariffs. The International Monetary Fund cut US growth forecasts; the Federal Reserve says some businesses have stopped hiring; the CEO of Walmart told Trump his policies will seize up the supply chain by summer.
Relentlessly applying American power
Like much that Trump has done since returning to the Oval Office, his trade policy is legally and constitutionally questionable since he unilaterally declared a national emergency to unlock powers to wage tariff warfare.
He’s now wielding vast and unaccountable authority to test his lifelong theory that the United States, the world’s richest nation, has long been ripped off by every other country. His aim is to force foreign markets wide open for US products and to make manufacturers bring back factories and jobs to revive industrialized regions that have paid a heavy price for the globalization of trade. He insists that scores of nations are lining up to do US-friendly deals that will make Americans rich.
Millions of American jobs may depend on the outcome of his gamble.
Trump is putting into practice a core belief that is also at the center of his effort to dismantle the US-led Western political system that has prevailed and kept global peace for 80 years: That the United States — the mightiest world power — should not lead the world but should use its strength in one-on-one negotiations to coerce smaller nations into policies that benefit America and no one else. This principle, embedded in his “America first” approach, has already alienated many American allies — although that’s a feature rather than a bug for a president who sees life as a win-lose proposition.
The president’s brittle temper and belief that he possesses a sharper economic mind than those whose job it is to protect employment and to fight inflation are also contributing to pushing the US economy to the brink.
His attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, for instance, have tarnished America’s brand as the rock of stability in the global economy. Trump has been demanding big interest-rate cuts even though many experts warn that this could hike inflation, which is already expected to rise because of his tariffs. Markets hated his interference — perhaps one reason why he’s toned down, at least for now, his threats to fire the central bank chief.
Trump is also escalating a dangerous showdown with China, launching full-on economic warfare with America’s 21st-century superpower rival, which has enormous geopolitical implications far beyond trading conditions.
“If you look at all of the years that I’ve been doing this, I’ve been right on things,” Trump told Time Magazine in an interview last week marking his first 100 days. “You’re going to have the wealthiest country we’ve ever had, and you’re going to have an explosion upward in the not-too-distant future.”
What is so remarkable about the gathering storm is that it’s not the product of business cycles, an outside economic shock, a terrorist attack, or an act of God like a pandemic or natural disaster. It’s all authored by an American president knowingly adopting tariff policies that almost all informed economic observers predict will lead to higher prices and slowed economic activity.
It’s not just what Trump is doing, but how he’s doing it.
He has imposed, paused and adjusted arbitrary tariffs erratically, creating the kind of uncertainty that can cause recessions. He claimed in his Time interview he’d already done 200 trade deals and that his team is talking with China, which is facing a 145% tariff that has effectively halted trade between the rivals. Beijing denies it’s in contact with the US and is showing no sign of backing down to his intimidation.
Americans don’t believe in Trump’s economic mastery anymore
Trump is making an extraordinary hazardous bet.
“This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history. It’s our declaration of economic independence,” the president said, declaring “Liberation Day” in the White House Rose Garden on April 2. He gleefully ran down the list of tariff rates for dozens of nations on big poster. “We’re going to be wealthy as a country because they’ve taken so much of our wealth away from us.”
But within hours of reciprocal tariffs coming into force, Trump suddenly paused them for 90 days, apparently brought back to reality by alarming activity in the bond markets that suggested investors were abandoning their faith in the US economy. His officials, steeped in Trump’s personality cult, nevertheless hailed his sudden reversal as proof of his genius and predicted a torrent of deals that would boost the economy. None of them have materialized so far.
The confusion and reversals have been traumatic for millions of Americans who hoped he’d bring economic relief, not a new round of pain for family budgets.
After winning a plurality of the popular vote in November, Trump’s approval rating has plummeted to 41%, the worst of any president in his first 100 days in 70 years, according to a new CNN/SSRS poll. His approval on the economy — a key to his longtime political viability — is at its lowest-ever level at 39%. Only 35% approve of his approach to inflation, the same number who back Trump on tariffs.
Where are the deals from the ‘ultimate dealmaker?’
The president’s deteriorating political position is escalating pressure to produce outcomes that justify the massive shock and damage he’s caused to the economy.
The administration, however, insists that an economic policy that seems to emerge from the president’s personal whims is a well-thought-out plan primed to deliver.
“I mean, he is the ultimate dealmaker,” Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union” Sunday. “It is going to be a new era of market expansion around the world … Countries are knocking on our door right now.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent portrayed Trump’s capricious leadership as an example of a president outwitting US trade rivals.
“In game theory, it’s called strategic uncertainty. So, you’re not going to tell the person on the other side of the negotiation where you’re going to end up. And nobody’s better at creating this leverage than President Trump,” Bessent said on ABC News’ “This Week” Sunday. “You know, he’s shown the high tariffs, and here’s the stick. This is where the tariffs can go. And the carrot is, come to us, take off your tariffs, take off your non-tariff trade barriers, stop manipulating your currency, stop subsidizing labor and capital and then we can talk.”
If Trump’s tariff strategy succeeds and he markedly improves trading conditions for the United States, he will defy the conventional wisdom of almost every leading economic analyst and decades of US economic policy. But if he tips the country — and the rest of the world — into recession, there will be no political escape since he’s made himself the personification of the tariff policy.
This is why it will be important to watch what happens next.
The administration is predicting that a flurry of trade deals from the likes of Japan, South Korea and the European Union will soon begin rolling out. Given that such agreements usually take years to negotiate and require ratification by foreign legislatures in democratic states, it’s likely that what emerges will fall far short of the revolution in global trade that the administration is predicting. But Trump is likely to hail any deals as extraordinary breakthroughs. If they don’t satisfy his goal of transforming global trade, they might calm markets and stabilize the president’s political standing and restore his dealmaker’s mythology.
Higher prices are coming
Even if Trump succeeds, his approach almost certainly means higher prices for Americans across the board — in defiance of the message voters sent last November.
Trump said in the Time interview, for instance, that he would regard it as a “total victory” if tariffs are at 20% or 30% or 50% on foreign imports next year. Such a scenario would mean American consumers would face far higher prices, effectively a massive tax increase. Trump insists that this will be offset by a massive tax reduction bill — but progress has been slow as GOP leaders try to work the plan through Congress.
And while he insists he has lowered prices for basic goods since taking office, that’s mostly untrue.
Trump’s vision of himself as a master impresario conducting the economy suggests that even rockier times will be ahead. He has suggested, for instance, that he would have sole responsibility for setting the prices of goods. “We are a department store, and we set the price,” Trump told Time. “Now, some countries may come back and ask for an adjustment, and I’ll consider that, but I’ll basically be, with great knowledge, setting.”
Such an arbitrary system, in which one person sets prices — let along someone with as rudimentary grasp of economics as Trump — would be a recipe for mayhem and corruption, and would shatter the rules-based economic system that has made the US the world’s greatest power.
“The United States was more than just a nation. It’s a brand,” billionaire investor Ken Griffin warned at the Semafor World Economy Summit last week. “It was like an aspiration for most the world. And we’re eroding that brand right now.”
